This is blog five of the 'Net Zero Blog Series'

Introduction

The United States has made a bold commitment to international decarbonization plans through its Net Zero Strategy. The strategy referred to as the ‘The Net Zero Plan’ encompasses a multifaceted approach spanning all major emitting sectors and greenhouse gases to reach net zero by 2050. The strategy calls for a rapid and large-scale transition away from fossil fuels towards clean and renewable energy. At the same time, the plan also emphasises the importance of nature based solutions and sustainable agricultural practices. Underpinning these efforts is the drive towards energy efficiency, cutting waste and maximising the output of every unit of energy consumed. The plan also emphasises on the role of coordinated action through innovation, leadership and engagement through businesses, universities and other stakeholders. 

As of 2021, the US's share of CO2 emissions globally is 13.6%, ranking second after China. The US's call for climate action is a crucial global step, given its significant economic influence, technological leadership, and geopolitical impact. In this article, we will take a closer look at the plan to understand the strategies in depth. 

Energy

Currently, 35% of the total energy supply comes from oil, 35% from natural gas and 11% from coal. 

Source- IEA

In terms of electricity generation, more than 50% is sourced from fossil fuels like natural gas (39%) and coal (20%). 

Source- IEA

The electricity sector, specifically, is responsible for more than a quarter of the country’s CO2 emissions. 

Source- IEA

The electricity sector is undergoing rapid decarbonization efforts, with aims  to achieve 100% carbon-free electricity generation by 2035. This goal will be pursued through cost reductions in power generation and storage technologies, as well as the implementation of new policies, incentives, and market reforms. All new capacity additions will be from wind and solar while nuclear will remain stable and could see some growth in 2030s and 40s. Most of the fossil fuel based generation will decline and the remaining will be retrofitted with carbon capture and storage technologies. Notably, there isn't a clear comprehensive plan to completely phase out fossil fuels. However, there are policies, programmes and proposals that hint towards a decrease in fossil fuel reliance. One significant example of such a policy at a federal level is the Clean Power Plan (CPP), to reduce emissions from fossil fuel based power generation. 
In addition, there are tax incentives like federal tax credits to renewable energy projects. These credits offset upfront costs and make renewables more competitive with fossil fuels. 

Transport

The transport sector, which accounts for 37% of total CO2 emissions, is the highest emitting industry. Initiatives are already underway to rapidly adopt electric vehicles across all vehicle segments. Federal tax credits are the primary financial incentives for purchasing EVs in the US. However, grants are also available typically at state or local levels. In addition to this, some states like California have adopted ZEV (Zero Emission Vehicle) mandates that require car manufacturers to sell a certain percentage of zero emissions vehicles. In addition to this, there are federal funding programs to build charging infrastructure, making EVs more viable for long-distance travel. Additionally, efforts to electrify railways, expand public transportation networks, and deploy low-carbon fuels like hydrogen and biofuels are aimed at reducing emissions. These plans seem to be in line with global trends but do not necessarily lead the way in the decarbonisation of the transportation sector. 

Buildings and industry

The residential and industrial sectors together are responsible for more than 16% of the CO2 emissions, largely coming from burning of natural gas for heating buildings in the winter. In addition to the above mentioned targets in the energy sector, reforms in the buildings and industrial sectors include updating and enforcing building codes for energy efficiency, integrated smart building technologies, improvement in the heating and cooling technologies, and implementation of circular economy policies have been outlined in the net zero plan. 

Other non-CO2 gases like methane, N2O and fluorinated gases make up around 20% of the total emissions. The major sources of these gases are soil management, energy and livestock management. To deal with these, the strategy mentions techniques like optimum fertiliser uses, healthy agricultural practices and advanced manure management techniques. Similar to the other sectors, the plans for the removal of non-CO2 gases has several policies and programs in place but there lacks a specific standout policy which can make the US stand out as a leader in GHG removals. 

Key analysis

The US’s plan to achieve net zero by 2050 is a highly ambitious one owing to the sheer scale and complexity of the task, especially the transition from heavy reliance on fossil fuels to clean energy. The transport and industrial sectors have agendas of sweeping reforms. This will require enormous investments in technology innovation and infrastructure, but also, crucially, political and civic buy-in, especially from the right. For example, the energy transition faces a huge challenge of grid modernization. The transport sector needs a clear plan on the phase out of ICEs. The industrial sector relies heavily on CCUS, a technology which is in the early stages of development and therefore not completely reliable. Energy efficiency in buildings also presents a challenge of retrofitting requirements. There are no clarifications on either the necessary action plans or incentives to ensure retrofitting in old buildings. In addition to this, there is no mention of international aviation emission reduction.

Conclusion

While the US net zero plan sets ambitious goals, its success hinges on many factors. The net zero plan of the United States is not a legally binding one. The US’s approach to energy and transport sector decarbonisation relies on a mix of several policies and federal programs rather than a singular mandated phase-out plan. This isn't necessarily an insufficient approach but rather a sectorally targeted one. However, with lack of clarity in defining implementation, monitoring progress and reporting methodologies, there is scope of improvement in establishing systems for assessment of the same.

Photo by Lucas Sankey on Unsplash