Introduction

In 2021, India announced its plan to achieve net-zero emissions by 2070 in the 26th COP at Glasgow. The net zero plan is a part of the Panchamrit Pledge - a five nectar plan - ‘reaching a non-fossil fuel energy capacity of 500 GW by 2030; fulfilling at least half of its energy requirements via renewable energy by 2030; reducing CO2 emissions by 1 billion tons by 2030; reducing carbon intensity below 45 percent by 2030; and finally pave the way for achieving a Net-Zero emission target by 2070’. The following year, India submitted its updated NDC as well as its first Long-term Strategy for Low Carbon Development (LT-LEDS) at COP27 outlining sector specific climate action. Historically, India’s per capita emissions have been significantly low compared to the global average. The total emissions, however, show a different story. India is the third largest emitting country and one of the fastest growing economies. India’s plans of reaching net zero by 2070 along with the development goals seem challenging.

Prior to announcing the net zero pledge, India’s climate action trajectory has been considered as 20 compatible by the Climate Action tracker. The rating was based on all national climate activities including domestic policies and international negotiations. However, the rating has dropped to ‘Highly Insufficient' based on the current policies and action. The net zero plan mentioned in the LT-LEDS emphasises on India’s energy need for development and justifies early net-zero by developed countries from a global carbon equity perspective. 

The net-zero overview

The LT-LEDS paves a low carbon pathway for India towards a net-zero target by 2070. The justification for a 2070 target instead of a 2050 one is simple; the need for economic growth and development. The fair share of the carbon budget  In addition, the document points out that India’s financial requirements are approximately USD 10 trillion out of which the investment deficit could be as much as USD 3.5 trillion. Therefore, climate finance also has been emphasised in the strategy document. 

For the pathway, the plan covers six major themes discussing current policies and elements of a low carbon strategy. 

1. Electricity systems

The major themes and actions under the electricity sector focuses on expanding renewables and strengthening the grid to accommodate flexibility while attending to demand side measures. However, the document emphasises on the role of coal and its use due to the socio-economic implications. The plan also mentions green hydrogen as an important decarbonisation strategy. 

2. Low carbon transport

The transport sector action plan includes improving fuel efficiency, phased adoption of cleaner fuels like biodiesel, compressed natural gas, ethanol etc, electrification of rail and road transport as well as increasing access to public transport. 

3. Sustainable urbanisation

The sustainable urbanisation plan promotes energy and resource efficiency in urban planning, building design as well as efficient management of waste by municipalities.

4. Industrial sector

Under the industrial sector, the strategy involves improving energy efficiency by building on current schemes like the Perform, Achieve and Trade (PAT) scheme. The plan also mentions the significance of low carbon growth options for the steel and cement sectors as well as sustainable development of the MSME sector.

5. CO2 removal solutions

For the CO2 removal solutions, the economic and political feasibility of CCUS technologies have been mentioned to be highly uncertain. The document clearly mentions that ‘Retrofitting of existing thermal power generating units for CCUS implementation is not a viable option, until the technology is cost effective and less energy intensive’. 

6. Forest cover

For the adaptation measures, the plan addresses the implementation of increasing forest cover including mangroves as well as managing green cover outside of forest areas. 

Analysis of the net zero target; Strengths, challenges and opportunities

India is a fossil fuel dominated economy. The electricity, transport and industrial sector account for a significant share of fossil fuel consumption and are also responsible for more than 85% of the emissions. It is therefore important that the decarbonisation strategies focus on these sectors more effectively. The current emissions trajectory however, draws a different picture. With the BAU scenario, the emissions are projected to rise significantly along with the net zero plan as a distant target. 

With the submission of the LT-LEDS, India covers its wide range of emitting sectors to approach emission reduction especially with strong emphasis on renewable energy. However, there is a long way to go to prepare a clearer net zero pathway. The elements of the long term low carbon development strategy for most sectors lack quantifiable targets. For example, in the electricity sector, there is a clear target of achieving 50% cumulative non-fossil fuel electric power capacity by 2030 but lack both; the pathway to achieve it as well as the means to achieve it. This is despite the fact that renewable energy with storage is already cheaper than fossil fuel (coal or gas) based power generation facilities. Similarly, the document mentions focusing on demand side measures but lacks clarity on ways to fulfil the demand. In the industrial sector, energy efficiency is promoted without clarity of any targets, incentives or programmes. India can also benefit from carbon pricing schemes which are missing from the strategy. 

There is an urgent need to develop measurable and transparent sectoral targets as well as detailed implementation strategies and roadmap. It is also important to establish a framework for monitoring progress, reporting data and evaluating the effectiveness of the implementation strategies. Additionally, financing the energy transition as well as the net zero implementation, can be leveraged through private investments along with international climate aid. Development grants from both the European Union and America to India, in order to redress past inequitable emissions, have nearly been absent. 

While India needs to consider its economic growth, the commitment to a low carbon and sustainable development pathway will be advantageous for climate action. Leveraging on its strengths like a significant renewable energy potential and suitable market for technologies, India can carve its pathway for a low carbon future.