Introduction

The energy sector is a key contributor to Gujarat’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, reflecting the state's industrial growth and energy demands. As one of India’s most industrialized states, Gujarat relies heavily on fossil fuels for power generation, manufacturing, and transportation, making the sector the dominant source of CO₂ emissions. Typically, CO₂ constitutes the majority—over 90%—of energy-related emissions, with methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) contributing the remainder. Gujarat’s expanding renewable energy capacity, including solar and wind power, presents an opportunity to reduce emissions intensity, but coal and natural gas continue to play a significant role in the energy mix. Understanding emissions trends in this sector is crucial for shaping policies that balance economic growth with sustainability goals.

Data Landscape

A comprehensive assessment of GHG emissions from Gujarat’s energy sector requires detailed activity data across multiple sub-sectors. Key data points include but are not limited to fuel consumption patterns, electricity generation, industrial energy demand, transport sector fuel use, household and commercial energy consumption, and fugitive emissions from fossil fuel extraction and processing.

Data Requirements & Availability

Data for Gujarat’s energy sector is primarily sourced from government agencies, with publicly available datasets forming the foundation of the emissions assessment. Additional third-party reports and peer-reviewed studies exist but are considered supplementary due to inconsistencies in methodology and coverage. This has been covered in Data Quality and coverage. 

Within the Fuel Combustion Activities (1A) sub-sector, activity data pertains to combustion of fuels for energy generation purposes. For example, coal for electricity generation, diesel for transportation or Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) for cooking purposes. Data availability for this sector varies across categories. 

Electricity generation (1A1) has the most comprehensive data, particularly for coal and lignite consumption. However, Manufacturing Industries (1A2) have only limited data, with information restricted to lubricants. In the Transport sector (1A3), fuel consumption data is available for road and aviation, with partial data for railways, but information on waterborne navigation is missing. Additionally, the transport data lacks the necessary disaggregation to accurately attribute emissions by vehicle type or fuel category. The Residential and Commercial sector (1A4) has LPG consumption data, but other fuel sources remain unaccounted for. The ‘Others’ category (1A5) has no available data.

In the Fugitive Emissions sector (1B), activity data is related to mining activities like amount of coal produced, volume of methane combusted, or fugitive emissions from transport of fuels. 

By systematically collecting and analyzing this data, policymakers and stakeholders can develop targeted strategies to improve energy efficiency, promote cleaner technologies, and transition toward a more sustainable energy system in Gujarat.

Sectoral insights

Energy sector emissions in Gujarat have shown significant variation over the past decade, driven by data completeness, policy shifts, and external socio-economic factors. In 2012 and 2013, emissions appear significantly lower due to missing electricity generation data, rather than an actual reduction in energy-related emissions.

Gujarat's first solar policy in 2015 and subsequent updates positioned the state as a renewable energy leader, though fossil fuel-based generation still dominates in absolute terms. A temporary decline in 2020, driven by the COVID-19 pandemic and reduced industrial and transportation activity, was followed by a return to stable emissions in 2021.

The energy sector emissions in Gujarat are dominated by electricity generation (64.6%), followed by transport (19.7%), manufacturing & industry (12.6%), and residential (3.1%). However, this breakdown represents an incomplete picture due to significant data limitations.

While electricity generation emissions are well-documented, emissions from captive power generation are underestimated due to missing data on fuel usage for energy generation in manufacturing industries. Similarly, transport sector emissions appear reasonable but lack disaggregated data. For example, while diesel consumption is known, its allocation across road, rail, waterborne transport, or backup generators is missing. Additionally, waterborne navigation emissions are absent from the dataset.

The fuel-based emissions profile for Gujarat reveals a continued dependence on coal and lignite, which together form the majority of emissions across the observed period (2012–2021). While there is a slight increase in natural gas usage, it has not significantly displaced coal-based emissions, highlighting the need for a stronger policy push towards cleaner energy alternatives.

Transport fuels such as diesel, petrol, and aviation turbine fuel (ATF) have remained stable, with no clear trend indicating electrification as a probable cause. Gujarat’s EV policy has been highly effective, leading to increased EV adoption. Additionally, the state’s railway electrification is over 90% complete, meaning diesel emissions in transport come mostly from road vehicles. 

A notable trend is the declining use of kerosene, likely driven by increased LPG penetration due to government schemes like the Ujjwaal Yojana. However, LPG’s share in emissions remains modest, indicating potential gaps in cleaner cooking adoption in certain areas.

The emissions profile of Gujarat’s electricity sector reveals a stark contrast between private and state-owned power plants. Private-owned plants account for a significantly larger share of emissions, largely due to higher installation capacities rather than policy-driven factors. While there have been announcements discouraging the addition of new coal plants, coal-based capacity has continued to grow. 
Coal remains the dominant fuel source for electricity generation, with a visible but relatively smaller contribution from lignite and natural gas. Despite Gujarat’s strong renewable energy policies, emissions from power generation have continued to rise. This suggests that while renewable energy (RE) capacity is expanding, it may not be keeping pace with increasing electricity demand. Additionally, RE is not yet capable of meeting peak demand requirements, which means fossil fuels may remain the primary source of electricity generation.

Bridging Data Gaps

Notably, the energy sector has better data coverage compared to other emissions sectors, making it the most reliable component of the emissions inventory. However, several data limitations hinder the full picture of Gujarat’s emissions landscape:

While fuel-wise energy emissions are well-documented, disaggregated consumption data is missing. For example, diesel consumption figures exist, but they are not broken down by sector, making it difficult to attribute emissions to transport, backup power (generators), industrial use or even waterborne navigation. Given Gujarat’s coastal location, waterborne transport could be a significant but unaccounted emissions source.

Another critical gap is in fugitive emissions (1B), particularly from the oil and gas sector. Gujarat has a well-developed petroleum refining industry, yet emissions from refining activities, gas processing, and small-scale lignite mining operations are not well-documented. Since fugitive emissions contribute to methane leaks, understanding their scale is crucial for accurate emissions accounting. 

Lastly, CCUS (1C) is an emerging technology with no large-scale implementation in Gujarat, but given the state’s significant refinery infrastructure, it could be a viable mitigation strategy in the future. However, the absence of data on industrial CO2 sources and storage potential means there is no clear pathway for assessing its feasibility.

Key recommendations

1. Enhancing Data Granularity & Standardization

   • Develop a framework for disaggregated fuel-use data across sectors, especially in transport, residential, and industrial energy use, to improve emissions accounting.

   • Establish precise coal consumption tracking for captive power generation, ensuring better estimation of emissions from industrial self-generation.

   • Implement a uniform data collection framework aligned with IPCC guidelines, ensuring all relevant government departments follow a standardized methodology.

2. Strengthening Emissions Monitoring & Verification

   • Mandate fugitive emissions monitoring in refineries and lignite mining operations to improve reporting accuracy.

   • Introduce incentives for emissions monitoring to encourage industries and refineries to participate in voluntary reporting initiatives.

   • Explore enhanced MRV (Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification) systems, possibly through digital tracking mechanisms or periodic government audits.

3. Facilitating Public & Private Data Collaboration

   • Encourage collaborations between private industries and government agencies to improve energy emissions data availability.

Summary 

Gujarat’s energy sector has the most comprehensive emissions data compared to other sectors, yet significant gaps remain. While renewable energy policies and electrification efforts have shaped the state’s transition, emissions trends highlight the challenge of meeting rising energy demand sustainably. The absence of disaggregated fuel consumption data, limited tracking of fugitive emissions, and inconsistencies in data reporting frameworks make it difficult to fully assess the sector’s emissions profile.

Addressing these gaps isn’t just a technical necessity—it’s a step toward more effective policy design and long-term climate planning. Standardizing reporting frameworks, improving MRV mechanisms, and fostering data-sharing partnerships between industries and government agencies will enhance transparency and decision-making. By refining its emissions inventory, Gujarat can better align its energy sector with its broader climate goals.